India was one of the advocates for holding a global stocktake exercise and has offered to host the second global stocktake, COP33. In the preparation of next Nationally Determined Contributions 2025-2030, India should conduct a national stocktake and go granular in its planning for meeting its own renewable and energy efficiency goals. State-level commitments are necessary for collectively determining and meeting realistic and ambitious NDC targets while balancing economic development goals.
Like previous climate conferences, the COP28 summit was fraught with its own share of controversies. Discussions revolved around marquee themes of phasing out coal, providing access to finance and technology, and setting up a loss and damage fund. The technical dialogue report of the first global stocktake tells us that the world community is not on track to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Even though the Paris Agreement has driven near-universal climate action, much more ambitious steps are needed from now until 2030. Hence, the catchphrase — “double down, triple up” — makes a push for tripling the renewable energy capacity and doubling down on energy efficiency measures by 2030.
India’s current NDC lists three quantitative goals by 2030 — reducing emission intensity of its GDP by 45 per cent from 2005 levels; achieving 50 per cent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources; and creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent through increased forest and tree cover.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) technical dialogue report found the adaptation and mitigation efforts to be fragmented, incremental, sector-specific, and unequally distributed across regions at the global level. This is pertinent even sub-nationally for India.
At the end of October 2023, the installed renewable capacity at the all-India level, including large hydro, was approximately 178 GW. When dissected, the distribution of installed renewable energy capacity across five regions is: Northern (55.29 GW), Southern (64.15 GW), Western (50.31 GW), Eastern (6.66 GW), and North-Eastern (2.51 GW). When zoomed in further, just six states account for 65 per cent of the total installed capacity. This makes sense since limitations of adoption such as access to finance, technology, and just transition manifest at the sub-national level too.
Over the next two years, India has to submit an updated NDC from 2025 to 2030. India’s own long-term low carbon development strategy submitted to UNFCCC identifies “states as engines of climate action in addition to coordinated climate action across central ministries”. The Centre must coordinate with states to prepare the NDCs.
India abstained from taking any pledges at COP28 and called out the double standards of developed nations on their fossil fuel usage while failing to mobilise the promised climate finance. If the COP playbook is predictable then what should really be the takeaway for India to solve the trilemma of energy security, economic development, and meeting climate goals?
The answer is a national stocktake.
Over the next seven years until 2030, coal consumption and the pace of renewable deployment will increase in India, while finance and access to technology will continue to be a constraint. A national stocktake exercise would be an opportunity for New Delhi and states to review their existing policies vis-à-vis the 2030 targets and address the constraints.
Previously, central and state governments in India drafted separate action plans on climate change. The Union Minister for Power and New and Renewable Energy, RK Singh, recently advised states to form energy transition committees. Apart from comprehensively documenting the impact of climate change, the action plans also identify interventions needed in each sector.
A national stocktake should assess actions taken in the identified areas, and more importantly, frame realistic and ambitious interventions for the next seven years and in their respective energy transition plans.
For instance, if the increase in consumption of coal and deployment of renewables is going to take place simultaneously, then a stocktake should underline the need for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) to optimise the generation-mix (in RE rich and poor states) and demand-side measures. If the government aims to “double down and triple up”, then integrating energy efficiency and renewable energy measures could be a potential option, especially for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
Even as COP28 comes to an end, global climate woes persist. India’s success in meeting ambitious climate targets is inevitably tied to the performance of its states. Coordinating with the state governments and providing a comprehensive roadmap will go a long way. A national stocktake is a necessary starting point before India hosts the next round of global stocktake.
Pylyp is an experienced private banker and asset manager.
